How to access and use the New Computerised Transit System (NCTS)
Check when you should use the NCTS If you are a UK trader, you should use the NCTS to submit ...
Read MoreChancellor Rachel Reeves presented her second Spring Statement to the House of Commons on 3 March 2026, alongside the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s updated forecasts for growth and borrowing.
Below, are the key forecasts, together with the joint press release from HM Treasury and Rachel Reeves
The Spring Forecast has shown that the government’s economic plan to cut the cost of living, cut national debt and grow the economy, is the right one.
The Chancellor today set out how this government is building a stronger and more secure economy that makes every part of Britain better off. Through stability in the public finances, investment in infrastructure and reform to the economy, this government’s economic plan is changing Britain for the better.
The OBR’s forecast shows inflation, borrowing and debt interest are all falling while investment is rising. It now forecasts that inflation will return to target in the second half of this year – earlier than forecast in November – and delivering on the government’s plan to ease pressure on households.
The decisions the Chancellor took at the last Budget to ease the cost of living, including reducing people’s energy bills by £150 and freezing rail fares, are specifically expected to bring inflation down by 0.4ppt in 2026-27.
Easing the cost of living is the government’s number one focus. That’s why we are boosting the minimum wage for millions of workers, fully-funding 30 hours of free childcare, rolling out free breakfast clubs and helping family incomes by removing the two-child limit.
The forecast shows borrowing is down by nearly £18 billion compared to the Autumn, with borrowing this year set to be the lowest in six years and falling below the G7 average for the first time in 22 years.
Already, we are expected to spend nearly £4bn less on debt interest next year than was forecast in the Autumn – money that can instead be spent on the things people rely on like our NHS and public transport.
The government is also reducing wasteful spending and driving efficiencies so that tax payer money can be spent wisely. This year was the lowest drawdown on the government’s contingency pot for day-to-day spending in almost a decade, showing they are keeping public finances stable.
The forecast shows headroom to the stability rule has increased to almost £24 billion.
The Government’s responsible approach to public spending means the Spring Forecast also reflects the recently announced £3.5bn of new funding for DfE in 2028-29 to support ambitious reforms to SEND resulting in £0.7bn of additional funding for Devolved governments through the Barnett formula.
The OBR’s forecast shows GDP per person is now set to grow more than was expected in the Budget – with growth of 5.6% over the Parliament. Despite the global uncertainty, Britain’s economy remains strong – with faster growth than any other European country in the G7 in 2025.
The driving purpose of growing the economy is to make every part of Britain better off. The OBR has forecast that people will be over £1,000 a year better off after inflation, delivering on the government’s priority to build an economy that makes working people better off.
Stat: “If our debt interest rates return to the G7 average, we will have £15bn a year more for the priorities of working people.”
Stat: “And real wages have now risen more since the election than they did during the first thirteen years of the previous government.”
HMT calculations based on ONS Earnings and working hours February 2026. This is based on a comparison of change in real wage levels published by the ONS. Periods are calculated over the following start and end points:
Stat: “The interest rate cuts we have supported will save families over £1,300 a year on a typical new fixed-rate mortgage.”
Stat: “and by the next election people will be over £1,000 a year better off after accounting for inflation.”
Stat: ”The OBR’s forecast shows GDP per head is now set to grow more than was expected in the Budget – with growth of 5.6% over the Parliament.”
HMT calculations comparing GDP per capita in the last quarter of the current Parliament with the last quarter of the previous Parliament, based on ‘Economic and Fiscal Outlook’, OBR, March 2026.
"My plan is the right one. I am in no doubt about how great the rewards can be if we stay the course. The forecasts today confirm that the choices this government has made are the right ones: Stability in our public finances, Interest rates and inflation falling, Living standards rising, More children lifted out of poverty, More appointments in our NHS, More investment in our infrastructure, A growing economy." Read full speech here.
"This year's Spring Statement proved that Rachel Reeves is a Chancellor in denial. While she spoke of stability, what have we seen so far from Labour? More taxes and more growth destroyed. Labour’s economic doom loop continues. This was not a Spring Statement but a surrender. Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves don’t have the backbone to make the difficult choices needed. We’ve seen this over and over again with their near constant U-turns." Read full response here.
“Today’s Spring Statement confirmed that the UK economy is heading in the right direction, but a further acceleration is needed. With GDP expected to grow well below two per cent a year until 2030, unemployment set to rise in the near term and net trade remaining anaemic there is more to do. Crucially, the OBR’s inflation forecast does not take into account the widening conflict in the Middle East and increasing disruption to oil and gas supplies and shipping. That inevitably adds a fresh element of uncertainty on prices and government borrowing.” Read full response here.
“In a period of geopolitical upheaval, a Spring Forecast that prioritises certainty over chasing headlines is the right approach for the Chancellor. Reducing the cost of living, cutting borrowing and growing the economy are the right priorities, but they can’t be achieved without clear efforts to tackle the high cost of doing business. That’s what will give firms the headroom they need to invest in the technology, trade and training that drive jobs and wage growth.” Read full response here
“The Spring Forecast achieved half of its objectives. No policy speculation and no new tax announcements will definitely be welcomed by business leaders. But public spending has been raised further, and there’s an assessment of the fiscal rules, despite previous commitments. Half of a welcome improvement in fiscal headroom is spent on SEND and local authority budgets, amidst warnings from the OBR that future increases in the tax burden risk competitiveness and growth. Meanwhile that improvement in headroom – delivered through equity market over-performance – could be wiped out by recent global developments.” Read full response here.
Our financial advisors are here to support you. If you have questions, please do not hesitate to contact us and we will get back to you within 24 hours, but usually much quicker.
Why not Register for our Newsletter and receive automatic Email updates concerning business related issues that may affect your business or personal circumstances.
